What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization

In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study of In-Context Learning (ICL) by addressing several open questions: (a) What type of ICL estimator is learned by large language models? (b) What is a proper performance metric for ICL and what is the error rate? (c) How does the transformer architecture enable ICL? To answer these questions, we adopt a Bayesian view and formulate ICL as a problem of predicting the response corresponding to the current covariate, given a number of examples drawn from a latent variable model. To answer (a), we show that, without updating the neural network parameters, ICL implicitly implements the Bayesian model averaging algorithm, which is proven to be approximately parameterized by the attention mechanism. For (b), we analyze the ICL performance from an online learning perspective and establish a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ regret bound for perfectly pretrained ICL, where $T$ is the number of examples in the prompt. To answer (c), we show that, in addition to encoding Bayesian model averaging via attention, the transformer architecture also enables a fine-grained statistical analysis of pretraining under realistic assumptions. In particular, we prove that the error of pretrained model is bounded by a sum of an approximation error and a generalization error, where the former decays to zero exponentially as the depth grows, and the latter decays to zero sublinearly with the number of tokens in the pretraining dataset. Our results provide a unified understanding of the transformer and its ICL ability with bounds on ICL regret, approximation, and generalization, which deepens our knowledge of these essential aspects of modern language models

Learning Regularized Graphon Mean-Field Games with Unknown Graphons

We design and analyze reinforcement learning algorithms for Graphon Mean-Field Games (GMFGs). In contrast to previous works that require the precise values of the graphons, we aim to learn the Nash Equilibrium (NE) of the regularized GMFGs when the graphons are unknown. Our contributions are threefold. First, we propose the Proximal Policy Optimization for GMFG (GMFG-PPO) algorithm and show that it converges at a rate of $O(T^{-1/3})$ after $T$ iterations with an estimation oracle, improving on a previous work by Xie et al. (ICML, 2021). Second, using kernel embedding of distributions, we design efficient algorithms to estimate the transition kernels, reward functions, and graphons from sampled agents. Convergence rates are then derived when the positions of the agents are either known or unknown. Results for the combination of the optimization algorithm GMFG-PPO and the estimation algorithm are then provided. These algorithms are the first specifically designed for learning graphons from sampled agents. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed algorithms are corroborated through simulations. These simulations demonstrate that learning the unknown graphons reduces the exploitability effectively